Commentary: As flooding worsens, effective solutions must address the root causes across the entire river system.
Ed.: The essays, analyses and opinions presented as Community Voices express the perspectives of their authors on topics of interest and importance to the community, and are not intended to reflect perspectives on behalf of Salish Current.
Flooding along the Lower Nooksack River is no longer an occasional emergency — it is a repeating, long-term problem. Over the past several decades, and especially since the 1990s, floods have become more frequent, last longer and cause greater damage. Homes, farms, roads, utilities, tribal lands and fish habitat are repeatedly flooded, requiring costly emergency repairs that do not reduce future risk.
Climate change is making the problem worse. Heavier winter rainfall, reduced snowpack, rain-on-snow events and rising sea levels increase flood depths and duration. Without long-term action, future flood damages are projected to reach $1.8–$3.9 billion over the next 30 years, placing growing financial and legal pressure on public agencies and communities.
What are the causes?
Flooding in the Lower Nooksack is driven by a combination of human-made changes and natural processes:
- River confinement by levees prevents floodwaters from spreading naturally, forcing water higher and faster through narrow channels.
- Loss of floodplains and wetlands has removed natural storage areas that once absorbed excess water.
- Excess sediment buildup from upstream has raised the riverbed, reducing channel capacity and causing floods at lower flows.
- Climate-driven hydrology changes bring more winter rain, less snow storage, and longer flood seasons.
- Tidal backwater effects slow river drainage near the delta, backing water up into upstream areas during high tides.
- Aging infrastructure and development in flood-prone areas further increase damage and recovery costs.
Together, these factors mean that each flood leaves the system more vulnerable than before.
What are the proposed solutions?
No single project can fix the flooding problem. Effective solutions must address the root causes across the entire river system. The proposed approach includes:
- Levee setbacks and floodplain reconnection to give the river more room, lowering flood heights and reducing flow velocity.
- Voluntary property buyouts in the highest-risk areas to permanently remove people and structures from harm’s way.
- Targeted sediment management to restore channel capacity where sediment buildup causes flooding.
- Side-channel and wetland restoration to recreate natural flood storage and improve salmon habitat.
- Tidal wetland restoration near the river mouth to improve drainage and buffer sea-level rise.
- Floodgate and drainage system upgrades to reduce prolonged flooding of farmland and infrastructure.
Together, these solutions reduce flood risk permanently while also supporting ecological and tribal priorities.
What are the costs — and who will pay?
Implementing these solutions over 30 years is estimated to cost $500–$850 million, significantly less than the damages expected if no action is taken.
Funding sources include:
- Federal (50–65%) — Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) hazard mitigation programs, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) coastal resilience grants, and federal planning support
- State (20–30%) — Washington Department of Ecology programs and salmon recovery funding
- Local (10–15%) — Whatcom County, cities and flood control districts
- Tribal, nonprofit and private partners (5–10%) — restoration funding, conservation organizations and mitigation banking
Benefit–cost analysis shows these investments would avoid $3–$4.60 in damages for every $1 spent, meeting federal funding requirements and reducing long-term public costs.
Resources
Federal flood risk, mitigation and cost analysis
- FEMA: Hazard Mitigation Assistance Programs
- FEMA: Benefit-Cost Analysis Guidance
- FEMA: National Flood Hazard Layer
- FEMA: Flood Mitigation Assistance Program
- FEMA: Building Resilient Infrastructure and Communities
Climate, hydrology and flood science
- U.S. Geological Survey: Floods and Climate Change
- NOAA: Climate Change and Extreme Precipitation
- NOAA: Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flooding
Washington state floodplain and restoration programs
- Washington State Department of Ecology: Floodplains by Design
- Washington State Flood Control Assistance Account
- Washington State Recreation and Conservation Office: Salmon Recovery Funding Board
Floodplain, sediment and river restoration science
- Puget Sound Nearshore Ecosystem Restoration Project
- Washington Department of Ecology: Floodplain Management
- USGS: Sediment Transport and River Morphology
Local and regional planning context
Economic risk and repetitive loss context
- Congressional Research Service: Flood Damage and Repetitive Loss Properties
- National Institute of Building Sciences: Natural Hazard Mitigation Saves
— By Enoch Ledet
Also read in Salish Current:
• “Flood response increases in Whatcom County,” Feb. 6, 2026
• “Flooded homes, hidden lives: volunteers step up for undocumented residents,” Feb. 5, 2026
• “December floods test salmon habitats, restoration efforts,” Feb. 4, 2026
• “‘Two-headed hydra’ worsens regional flooding,” Dec. 19, 2025
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