Economic uncertainty, tariffs and lower-than-projected sales tax could impact budget.
The funding available for the new Whatcom County jail will likely be less than expected, say those involved in the project.
The decreased funding is thanks to increased economic uncertainty, tariffs and lower-than-projected sales tax.
“It’s a time of uncertainty with everything that’s going on in the world, particularly with a different administration in Washington, D.C., it’s hard to make accurate predictions,” said Jed Holmes, a spokesperson for the county’s executive office.
“There are basically two variables: There’s size and quality, like how nice of a facility is it and how large of a facility is it?” he continued. “Those are decisions that will have to be made with some compromises in mind.”
It’s the latest development for an issue that’s been contentious in the county for over a decade. Conditions in the current jail, which was built in 1984, leave a lot to be desired. It lacks behavioral health infrastructure and suffers from staffing deficits and overcrowding, and is in need of repair.
Peter Frazier, a longtime advocate of a new jail with better conditions, said he’s pleased with the project’s progress so far. Frazier is also co-chair of the Incarceration Prevention and Reduction Task Force, which reviews the county’s criminal justice and behavioral health programs.
“It is disappointing that it’s taken so long for us to replace the current jail, which is a horrible facility, and I am motivated every day in this work to replace that facility as quickly as possible,” he said. “The place that we’re going to be designing and building and operating will be very, very different…so that people come out the other side ready to reintegrate into our community.”
Economic constraints
Whatcom County couldn’t have predicted the current state of the economy when it made projections in 2023 about how much sales tax it could count on for the new jail.
Voters passed a levy for the jail, with the stipulation that a good chunk of the funds would go to behavioral health and diversion, after two previous failed attempts to pass a similar levy.
The levy was expected to bring in $14 million by 2025 based on average sales tax growth from the previous 20 years, Holmes said. Unfortunately, sales tax numbers in 2024 and 2025 have been fairly stagnant year to year.
Between when the tax started in April 2024 and the end of the year, the levy generated $8 million, according to Holmes. Because it takes a while for the funds to be redistributed to local governments, the county does not yet have numbers for 2025.
“We’re becoming more and more cost-constrained here because the projections that we had at the time so far haven’t come to fruition,” he said.
Foreign affairs
That’s not the only financial concern; foreign policy could also place economic strain on the project.
Tariffs, for example, could drive up the cost of construction materials. About 7% of materials used in new residential construction originate from a foreign nation, according to the National Association of Home Builders. That includes a third of all softwood lumber, which is imported from Canada.
Relations between the U.S. and Canada could also impact the project, said Holmes, adding that about 10% of the county’s sales tax is generated by shoppers from Canada.
Frazier also pointed to federal Medicaid cuts, which could amount to a $2 billion loss in funding across the state over the next four years. The U.S. House narrowly passed President Donald Trump’s budget bill that includes the cuts on Thursday. It now faces a vote by the Senate.
Although Medicaid is largely prohibited from covering treatment inside jails, it does provide funding for programs that help divert individuals from jail or provide treatment to them upon their release. Without those kinds of community programs, jails can become the de facto provider for mental illnesses and substance use disorders — a dynamic that leads to higher costs for the jail and increased recidivism.
“Things are in such flux that I don’t think that we’re at the solutions stage but in the gathering information stage,” Frazier said. “We’re prepared to have those hard conversations.”
Attracting more staff
The new jail will likely require additional corrections officers as well as behavioral health staff.
Garrett O’Brien, whose company, Volonta Corp., builds homes in Northwest Washington, is worried about where all those additional staff will live.
“The housing market is really tough here. It’s expensive, so recruiting salaried professionals can be hard because sometimes they can’t afford to live out here,” O’Brien said. “That’s a challenge that I don’t feel is being adequately addressed. I know that there’s an awareness around it, but I haven’t heard anyone articulate a really good plan on how we do that.”
Frazier acknowledged that while housing is “a significant problem,” it’s outside of the task force’s purview.
“That’s really not something we’ve been talking about,” he said. “However, finding staff for the correction staff and also mental health and behavioral health staff for the facility is certainly top of mind. I tend to think that we’re going to create such a good facility and operation that we will draw people from other communities.”
Holmes said the county is in the testing phase of a workforce survey designed to better understand the core challenges faced by local behavioral health providers and students interested in entering the field.
He also pointed to the county’s efforts to support behavioral health community partners, including free trainings and a peer support coach for professionals in co-responder programs, which pair mental health professionals and law enforcement officers.
Updates on progress
As far as the overall timeline is concerned, the project is still on track, said Holmes.
That includes finalizing the cost estimate of the project by next summer and a target opening of July 2028.
“We’re kind of getting all these pieces together and saying, OK, what should it look like? How much money do we have? What do things cost?” Holmes said. “We’re kind of working behind the scenes, trying to get the project rolling, and I think the next couple of months the public will start seeing kind of more of that come to light.”
The county is currently addressing some wetland mitigation work at the project site as well as an analysis of the jail capacity and behavioral health services that are needed. The county also hired STV, a consulting company that’s managed other large public construction projects.
Next on the to-do list is to choose a company to design and build the jail. The county is currently accepting bids and hopes to make a selection by the end of July. Holmes said using the same company for the design and construction will ideally help the project stay within budget.
Getting involved
The new jail’s progress and challenges will be covered in a panel hosted by the Bellingham City Club, a nonpartisan civic organization, on May 28 at the Bellingham Yacht Club.
Panelists include Whatcom County Public Defender’s Office Director Starck Follis, Whatcom County Council Member Barry Buchanan and Whatcom County Deputy Executive Kayla Schott-Bresler.
Jill Bernstein — a member of Bellingham City Club’s Board of Directors and a former criminal defense lawyer — stressed how important public awareness of the new jail project is.
“It’s a considerable investment of our financial resources,” she said. “And I think that everyone should be interested and concerned about how this project is moving forward.”
Residents can also learn more about the project by attending Incarceration Prevention and Reduction Task Force meetings. The county is also planning to release a dashboard to keep residents informed about the project’s progress by the end of the year.
“I am asking people to pay attention and be involved to the degree that they want to be involved in this process,” Frazier said. “Whatcom County is working hard on this and we’re paying very, very close attention.”
— By Sydnee Chapman
Also read in Salish Current:
• “When ‘lock ’em up’ doesn’t make sense,” June 25, 2024
• “Jail, behavioral health, community policing challenge new sheriff ” May 16, 2024
• “Commentary: Whatcom candidate forum was a study in styles,” Aug. 25, 2023
• “Jail needs to change, community agrees; but how? ” Jan. 3, 2023
• “Leaning into ‘treatment over punishment’: jail diversion programs show potential,” April 8, 2022