Greater urgency is needed to save Nooksack salmon
Ed.: The essays, analyses and opinions presented as Community Voices express the perspectives of their authors on topics of interest and importance to the community and are not intended to reflect perspectives on behalf of Salish Current.
I worry that salmon in the Nooksack River watershed will not survive the next few decades. This gloomy outlook — which I hope is incorrect — is driven by three factors:
- Effects of climate change, including less snow, shrinking glaciers, earlier-in-the-year snowmelt, higher summer temperatures and less summer rain;
- Land-use management practices, including forestry, farming and urban development; and
- Inability of our leaders — Depts. of Ecology and Fish & Wildlife, Whatcom County, local Watershed Management Board — to address summer droughts with projects that increase supply, store winter water for summer use, and improve water-use efficiency.
I examine summer stream flows in the mainstem Nooksack, North Fork, Middle Fork, South Fork and Fishtrap Creek. These locations represent the major elements of the watershed.
I focus on summer because that is when flows are lowest, salmon and other wildlife are most likely to need more water than is actually flowing, and human use of water is greatest — primarily agricultural irrigation. Low flows contribute to elevated water temperatures, which can be lethal for fish. And low flows lead to less dissolved oxygen, less habitat and limited access to habitat, all of which are bad for fish.
Over the past six decades summer streamflow in the mainstem Nooksack River has been declining. Over this period, flows decreased at an average of 0.6% per year. During the past 15 years flows dropped much more rapidly, at 4% per year.
Overall, summer flows on the mainstem, three forks and one lower Nooksack tributary are declining. Flows during the past 15 years declined much more rapidly — five to 10 times as fast — than during earlier years. Flows declined by 20% to almost 40% from 2006-2015 to 2016-2025, what Ecology called a “stunning loss of streamflow.”
What happens if these adverse trends continue? How much water will remain in the three forks, lowland tributaries and mainstem in 10 or 20 years? And what will that do to salmon health and numbers? And how much worse will fish be if we experience multi-year droughts?
To restore salmon populations, we need to identify, analyze, and — most important — implement a robust set of water supply, storage and efficiency projects and programs. Although staff and leadership at Ecology, Whatcom County and the Watershed Management Board are dedicated and hardworking, implementation of projects and programs to restore flows is very limited.
Projects that would substantially increase flows and also reduce winter flooding are expensive. A recent analysis of storage projects identified a wide range in capacity and costs. Unfortunately, the less expensive projects would provide only modest amounts of summer water.
This study identified two small projects in the South Fork. Additional studies of these sites were conducted and another is proposed for 2027. Whether these projects will actually be constructed is unknown. Together, they might increase summer streamflow by only 6% of the South Fork flow and less than 1% of the mainstem flow.
At the other end of the cost spectrum, a dam on the North Fork might cost $2.6 billion to build plus $3.6 million per year to operate and would provide a substantial 36,000 acre-feet of increased summer supply. Are we willing and able to pay this much for water? Where would the money come from? The federal, state and local governments all face serious budget problems. How many decades would it take to conduct the necessary engineering and environmental studies, obtain regulatory approvals, secure funding, hire contractors, construct the dam and fill the reservoir? By that time would summer flows be so low that salmon survival would be unlikely and the dam irrelevant?
Finding projects large enough to substantially offset the low-flow effects of climate change and cheap enough to be affordable is a real challenge. Would it therefore make sense to focus on those reaches and streams where salmon survival is most important, and where restoration of stream flows is most feasible? Which tributaries and forks are most important? Which salmon species are best suited to recovery efforts?
It is also possible that time has run out for Nooksack salmon. Given how discouraging such a conclusion is, I asked a dozen colleagues to review a draft of this paper. All the reviewers disagreed with my conclusion. Reviewers wrote:
Salmon are a keystone species, both ecologically and culturally, in the Pacific Northwest. We must do everything we can to support salmon populations; if we try and do not succeed, it will not be a wasted effort.
Salmon are resilient and adaptable. They will survive. Extinction is not an option. We need to keep working on solutions.
Where does this leaves us? The data tell a negative story. All the local experts who reviewed this paper disagree. Everyone believes that, if we come together soon and agree on projects to start with, salmon recovery will occur. We need to align around priority projects and move from planning to implementation with greater urgency.
—By Eric Hirst
Eric Hirst has degrees in engineering and spent most of his career as an energy policy analyst working on energy efficiency and other issues related to the electricity industry. He has been a lifelong environmental activist, serving on the boards of various environmental organizations, including RE Sources and the Center for Environmental Law and Policy. He has lived in Bellingham for more than two decades and loves the community.
Want to learn more about water? Salish Current will host “Sharing Our Water,” a festival of art, voices and community, Sept. 4 from noon to 8:30 p.m. at the Whatcom Museum, Old City Hall and The Lightcatcher in Bellingham. Come for the fun and stay for serious discussions about our responsibility to protect this valuable life source. Contact Jayne Freudenberger, freudbj7@comcast.net, for details.